A CSUB economist predicts we are in for a long recession because of the coronavirus, the number of infected in Kern County reaches 30 and Deborah Leary is recognized for her work with the homeless

Welcome to Bakersfield Observed. Our mission is to celebrate life in Kern County by focusing on newsmakers and events and the local characters who make this community such a special place. The views expressed here are strictly my own and do not represent any other person or organization.

 * ... HOLD ON FOR THE RECESSION: Will the coronavirus plunge our country into a recession? That's the word from Richard Gearhart, a professor of economics at CSUB. Gearhart told me it was

 likely we are in for a "long recession' - between 12 and 18 months - as the nation struggles with a

spike in unemployment thanks to so many businesses shutting down. In addition to the jobless claims, Gearhart said keep an eye on the number of workers who have held onto their jobs but saw their hours cut, another sign of a sick economy trying to get back on its feet.

 * ... SMARMY CHARACTERS: I was chatting with Supervisor Mike Maggard the other day and he offered up the simplest, and most accurate in my opinion, reason why the two recent marijuana initiatives failed at the ballot box. Some of the proponents of the initiatives, Maggard said, were "smarmy" and appeared to discredit the effort to bring medicinal pot sales to Kern County. I don't use the word "smarmy" often, but Supervisor Maggard chose exactly the right word.

 * ... CORONAVIRUS: Do you ever wonder why the Kern County Public Health Department doesn't report the communities where the people are sick from the coronavirus? Former city councilman Mark Salvaggio put that question to Public Health Director Matt Constantine who said reporting the communities where virus cases occur may violate HIPPA laws. Constantine also said, "Unfortunately, we are now detecting more positive cases within Kern County and as such we will be able to release some broad geographic areas with positive test results next week."

 * ... SPOTTED ON TWITTER: "My husband is working from home and he’s still late."

 * ... DEBORAH LEARY: Hats off to Deborah Leary, a tireless advocate for the homeless and other local causes, who was featured in The Bakersfield Californian this week. Leary was featured in a piece on St. Vincent du Paul on Baker Street, which provides meals for hundreds of homeless every day as well as providing showers and mail boxes so people will have a place to receive their mail. The facility takes no state, federal or local money and exists solely on donations and proceeds from its thrift store. (photos courtesy of The Californian)

 * ... SPOTTED ON FACEBOOK: Only in California.

 * ... FARM BUREAU: Colleen Taber has been named administrator of the Kern County Farm Bureau, replacing Ariana Joven who was appointed government affairs for Kern's largest farming company, Los Angeles-based The Wonderful Co. Taber previously worked as regional manager of the FARMS Leadership Program, where she partnered with Kern high schools to teach young people about local farms and careers in agriculture.

 * ... MEMORIES: Check out this front page of The Bakersfield Californian during the great Spanish flu.

As Californians shelter at home, businesses close, the roads clear and people keep a respectful distance from each other. Another casualty: the iconic restaurants that make our community special either close or go to take-out only

Welcome to Bakersfield Observed. Our mission is to celebrate life in Kern County by focusing on newsmakers and events and the local characters who make this community such a special place. The views expressed here are strictly my own and do not represent any other person or organization.

 * ... SHELTERING IN: So how did your first weekend go sheltering in place? The town was eerily - and appropriately - quiet with restaurants, bars, movie theaters and events shut down. The bike path

was moderately busy with runners, walkers and cyclists, but other than that it was certainly an odd weekend. We now have six cases in Kern County, and you have to wonder about all the naysayers who complained this was much ado about nothing.

 * ... VIRUS UPDATE: As of 4 p.m. PST on Sunday, the United States had 32,000 cases and 201 deaths. In California, as of 2 p.m. Sunday, we have had 1,468 positive cases of the virus and 27 deaths.

 * ... SPOTTED ON TWITTER: "Waiting for the government to ban gatherings of more than 4 people so I don’t have to go home."

 * .. PRICE GOUGING: District Attorney Cynthia Zimmer has a warning for all of you who want to take advantage of the run on food, toilet paper and hand sanitizers: if we catch you price gouging, you will be prosecuted. Zimmer said investigators from her office are routinely checking out reports of price gouging and if a case can be proven, she will not hesitate to bring charges. If you know of instances of price gouging, contact the DA's office.

 * ... RESTAURANTS: One by one the iconic restaurants that serve our community - Uricchios Trattoria, Luigi's Delicatessan, Jake's Tex-Mex, Mexicali, Two Goats and a Goose (formerly Muertos), Pyrenee's Cafe , Cafe Smitten etc - have shut down or gone to curbside takeout service only because of the coronavirus. We will find out shortly how important a role the bars and restaurants play in our community, in terms of socializing, doing business and family time. I miss them already, and I fret over the well being of the owners and the servers, bartenders, cooks and busboys who serve us every day.

 * ... SIGN OF THE TIMES: I came home to find this on my door, notice from one of my favorite Mexican restaurants that they remain open, at least for take-out.

 * ... SPOTTED ON FACEBOOK: Speaks for itself...

 * ... MEMORIES: If you didn't think there was traffic back in the day, think again. Take a look at this nugget from our past.

Will the coronavirus trigger a recession, or at worse a depression? Hang on because we are in for a wild ride in the months ahead. Plus Bakersfield College also cancels its commencement

Welcome to Bakersfield Observed. Our mission is to celebrate life in Kern County by focusing on newsmakers and events and the local characters who make this community such a special place. The views expressed here are strictly my own and do not represent any other person or organization.

 * ... CORONAVIRUS: Kern County has four confirmed cases of the coronavirus, and now that testing is in full swing countywide, you can expect that number to spike dramatically. No one knows

just how high it will go, but don't be surprised if we end up with 100 local cases or more given how contagious this virus has proved to be. Both the city of Fresno and San Luis Obispo County have mandatory shelter in place rules, and who knows if Kern County and Bakersfield may do something similar? Meanwhile. some economists believe we may be headed to a depression - yes, I said depression - while others are hoping that the worst case scenario is a prolonged recession. Hang on because we are in for a difficult period ahead.

 * ... RESTAURANTS: My heart goes out to all the locally owned restaurants who have been thrown into uncharted waters thanks to the coronavirus. Most have gone to curbside service, while others are considering closing temporarily. Here's a novel concept: buy a gift certificate from your favorite eatery to help them get through this period, and when things clear, use it to celebrate the return to normalcy. In some markets, communities are using GoFundMe to raise money to help the restaurant staffs ride through the recession.

 * ... COMMENCEMENTS: Bakersfield College became the latest educational system to cancel its spring commencement, dealing yet another blow to seniors who had hoped to walk across the stage. CSUB and Fresno State University did the same, and we can expect high schools to follow suit.

 * ... SPOTTED ON TWITTER: "Just finished the laundry and all my socks had their partners. Is this what having your life together feels like? "

 * ... SPOTTED ON FACEBOOK: "Everything you need to know about social distancing you will learn from marriage."

 * ... TODAYS CHUCKLE: I just had to share this.

* ... CRIME: Homelessness, the coronavirus, hoarding... what has our world come to? Well don't forget crime, that has yet to take a day off despite all the other distractions. A friend woke to find his truck had been broken into by thieves who unsuccessfully tried to hot wire the ignition. And so it goes.

 * ... MEMORIES: Back in the 1920s, the Panorama Bluffs were the scenes of weekend social activities as hundreds would gather to watch morotcyles race up to the top. Thanks to the Kern County of Old Facebook page for these magical old photos.

A Bakersfield teacher implores Gov. Newsom to close our schools. Do the math, she says, without protocols 10,000 people here may be infected by Easter and that is the "best case" scenario

A math teacher’s perspective on Covid-19: Even the best case mathematical scenario results in an over run system  

 By TAMARA CLARK          

A math teacher’s perspective on Covid-19: Even the best case mathematical scenario results in an over run system  
         
Exponents. Here we are, in the midst of the most pertinent exponent lesson we’ll ever have the displeasure of sitting through. However this time, the bell won’t ring after 55 minutes, freeing us of our mathematical woes. No, Covid-19 is here to stay. Perhaps we do not have any confirmed cases yet, but it’s closing in and fast. Exponents are one of those concepts that can be hard to wrap your brain around. If I save a penny on day 1 of the month and double my savings each day in 30 days I will have $5,368,709.12? That is correct.

This morning March 15, 2020 the Kern County Superintendent of Schools issued a statement reiterating their decision to keep schools in Kern County open. Governor Gavin Newsom took to the airwaves Sunday updating infection numbers to an increase of 14%; 335 confirmed cases and six

Covid-19 related deaths statewide. He also announced the closure of bars and wineries and for home isolation of citizens 65 and over. Closing public places is not enough. We need to close our schools, too.

Regardless of where your thoughts fall on these updates locally and by Governor Newsom, I urge you to consider the exponential reasoning explained here. Further, consider that these figures are reflective of the absolute BEST CASE scenarios as our heroic researchers and first responders work tirelessly to discover the truths and care for those affected by this infection. It is my assertion that we must not discount the documented courses of trajectory regarding Covid-19 in China and Italy and begin our community on the path to social distancing procedures immediately.

The below is what our city will look like in just 30 days, if, for the sake of this discussion, ONE patient tested positive in Bakersfield today and the absolute best case scenario of suggested infection ranges occurs. For every 1 case confirmed it is estimated by virologists at Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital that between 10 and 50 exist that are positive for the infection and are unknowingly spreading the virus.

512 is the MOST CONSERVATIVE estimate of the serious life threatening cases (5% of the infected population) requiring ICU hospitalizations in Bakersfield within the next month. Yes, that’s if ONLY ONE patient tests positive today based on our population of 383,579.                                                      

Without social distancing protocols instituted immediately, there will, mathematically speaking, be 1,024 TIMES [not 10 times, 20 times, or even 100 times, but OVER 1000 times] the number of infected people in our city after only 30 days. In this best case scenario, 10,240 Bakersfield residents will be positive for the virus by Easter -- unless protocols to slow the spread are put into effect immediately.

The worst case scenario numbers are much larger, with a multiplier of 50 infected per 1 confirmed case, and the number of ICU critical patients (still assuming, on the lowest side of projections, 5% of those infected needing an ICU bed) would be 2,560 in Bakersfield and a total of 51,200 cases in our city alone.

Here is the real problem, as our seven local hospitals stand today, only a limited number of dedicated ICU beds exist. My research of public record indicates the number is currently in the low 100s. It won’t matter that the majority of the critical care beds will already be occupied by patients not suffering the extreme respiratory distress of Covid-19. The existing non-Corona patients will already be receiving monitoring and ventilation by the doctor, a respiratory therapist and nurse each critical care bed requires. Based on those percentages, even in the best case scenario above even if all ICU beds in the city became available and alternative outdoor shelters were in place, how could the system possibly offer those 512 Bakersfield residents needing critical ICU care?

Only if we now, today, put in place the CDC recommendations including social distancing measures of self quarantine, enhanced infection control in healthcare settings, long term financial crisis planning, and protocols to temporarily empower residents to impose movement restrictions upon themselves does our healthcare system have a chance to weather this. We are all going to have to give up a little to gain a lot in the long run. Why should you limit yourself and your routine if "the odds are in your favor" and you are not in a high risk category? What are the chances we will ALL know someone very personally that will be affected by this shortage of available care? 100%.

Perhaps it won’t be you or one of your children, or even your elderly family members with one of the 5% of Covid-19 cases requiring hospitalization. I’m betting if you’re in a car accident anytime soon your doctor will have been working 18 hour days for the last months because it was required to care for patients. Further complicating things, if you or someone you care about needs a ventilator to survive hospitals overseas are already reporting shortages and attempting to acquire more vents. Here in the U.S. hospital staff and administrators are working tirelessly in attempting to find what they can get their hands on. What if your elderly and ailing parent suffering from diabetes or a stroke goes into distress and may not receive care because the doctors, as widely reported in Italy, are having to make battlefield triage judgement calls on which patients have the best survival chances. In this triage scenario your elderly mom will not get the upper end of that argument when entering the emergency department next to a healthy forty year old father of three. The triage choices that Italian medical professionals are having to make are unfathomable, and they are happening now. It’s not just the elderly that are succumbing to this virus, the immunocompromised cancer patients or bone marrow recipients may not receive the specialized care required for their treatments to continue, let alone be successful. All of the above is currently happening in Italy, who had roughly the same number of infections we have today in the U.S., just weeks ago.  WE must start today.

Above all, let us be kind and empathetic towards one another as we travel this contagion path as a community.

Tamara Clark is a mother to 3 sons, wife to a local fire captain first responder, and 15 year vetern mathematics instructor.
tamaraclark3boys@outlook.com

The sole intention of my thoughts expressed here is to raise awareness of basic exponential growth mathematics in relation to peer reviewed published assertions of the heroic medical professionals that are working tirelessly to keep us safe and informed. The opinions expressed here are that of me personally and I have supported my mathematical reasoning with the work of respected researchers and leaders in the field of virology. I have researched the facts and figures included herein and anyone requesting citation is welcome to email me. Anyone, including the metia, is free to share these words, any related content, all or in part, for any purpose in any format with simple attribution to my name, and background if applicable. Please feel free to direct message me via email.

When Starbucks opened its doors (and bathrooms) to the homeless did it also welcome in the coronavirus? Plus Jeff Pickering's hunt for a monster, and are you ready for a two-week lockdown?

Welcome to Bakersfield Observed. Our mission is to celebrate life in Kern County by focusing on newsmakers and events and the local characters who make this community such a special place. The views expressed here are strictly my own and do not represent any other person or organization.

 * ... HOARDING AND THE VIRUS: Now that we have survived our first weekend of hoarding and "social distancing" over fears of the coronavirus, are you ready for a total 14-day lockdown ? As

Draconian as that sounds, get ready for it. Throughout Europe - in Italy, France, Spain and Denmark - governments have put the nations on lockdown. The only businesses that are open are banks, grocery stores and gas stations. If you can work at home, do it. Otherwise everything is closed: no bars, restaurants, sporting events or cafes. My hunch is that President Trump, sensing that his reelection is now at stake, will opt for a forceful action that will curtail the virus and show America he is an effective leader. Get ready for it.

 * ... SPOTTED ON TWITTER: "I don’t want to be presumptuous, but you can also just wash your hands even if there’s not some pandemic currently capturing your attention. It doesn’t have to be a special occasion."

 * ... GLASS HALF FULL: Meanwhile, is there light at the end of the tunnel? Can something good come from all of this? According to trend forecaster Li Edelkoort, this may be the best thing that has happened to the planet in years. First, Edelkoort said the coronavirus epidemic will lead to "a global recession of a magnitude that has not been experienced before" but will eventually allow humanity to reset its values. According to the website Dezeen, Edelkoort said the virus was causing a "quarantine of consumption" and would have a profound cultural and economic impact. "People would have to get used to living with fewer possessions and traveling less, she said, as the virus disrupts global supply chains and transportation networks. "It seems we are massively entering a quarantine of consumption where we will learn how to be happy just with a simple dress, rediscovering old favorites we own, reading a forgotten book and cooking up a storm to make life beautiful," she said. So there you have it, reason for hope.

 * ... STARBUCKS AND THE VIRUS: Remember two years ago when Starbucks decided to open its doors to the homeless, arguing that we should all be more sensitive to the plight of those who live on the street? It sure seemed like a good idea at the time, unless you happened upon a naked homeless man washing his privates in the sink (yes, that happened to me), or had to endure the endless parade of homeless hitting you up for coffee. And now we have the coronavirus where experts say you can contract it simply by touching a surface where a carrier laid his hands. Those same experts now warn it is just a matter of time before the virus infects the homeless community and spreads like wildfire. Outside of nursing homes, there are few more vulnerable populations than the homeless, many drug addicted and most living in filthy and squalid conditions. So now how will you feel about sitting down at a Starbucks table where a homeless man or woman may have sat? Will you willingly share an eating surface at Starbucks where you know a homeless person may have sat just moments before? Will you lay your hands on the "to go" counter as you wait on your carmel macchiato? Have you ever seen a barista disinfecting the inside of a Starbucks? Well neither have I. Ex Starbucks CEO Howard Schulz loved social engineering, and now his company has to live with his decision.

 * ... HUNTING DOWN A MONSTER: Jeff Pickering is better known as the past CEO of the Kern County Community Foundation, which he ran for five years before landing a new gig in his home state of Florida. But Pickering is now known for something other than philanthropy, the victim of a childhood molestation that he repressed for 30 years before the memory was triggered by the #metoo movement. Grappling with issues he had repressed for decade, Pickering decided to track down the man who molested him when he was just 15 years old, an orthopedic doctor who later faced  similar charges of molestation by other men. To Pickering's horror the doctor, William P. Zink, remains practicing today, despite being prosecuted years ago only to see that trail end in an acquittal. Zink is now practicing in the Orlando area, just an hour or so from where Pickering now lives. Picketing tracked him down, found he was affiliated with AdventHealth in Orlando, and began lobbying the Adventist CEO and others to have him fired. The lobbying seemed to work, and Zink resigned from his Adventist affiliation but his still working. Undaunted Pickering will not give up, and he is now on a mission to have Zink exposed so he can no longer come into contact with young men. Listen to Pickering's story this Wednesday exclusively on KERN NewsTalk 96.1 FM on the Richard Beene Show. (Jeff and Stephanie Pickering above and Dr. William Zink below)

 * ... MEMORIES: Enjoy these old photos courtesy of my friend Art Moore and the Kern County History Fans Facebook Page.

A CSUB economic predicts the coronavirus will trigger a recession, Grimmway Farms celebrates 50 years in business and Bishop Joseph Brennan makes an appearance at St Francis no less

Welcome to Bakersfield Observed. Our mission is to celebrate life in Kern County by focusing on newsmakers and events and the local characters who make this community such a special place. The views expressed here are strictly my own and do not represent any other person or organization.

 * ... CORONAVIRUS: Will the coronavirus plunge the United States into a recession? CSUB

economics professor Dr. Richard Gearhart believes it will, and it's hard to argue against when you look at the economic hit we are taking as we respond to the virus. CSUB has suspended classes for the rest of the semester, Disneyland has closed, Broadway shows have shuttered, the NCAA has canceled the men's and women's college basketball tournament known as March Madness, the NBA and NHL seasons have been suspended, major league baseball delayed the start of spring training, the Bakersfield Tennis Open has been canceled and there will be no more audiences at hit TV show recordings like Jeopardy!, Wheel of Fortune and The Ellen Show. Can the closing of public elementary and high schools be far behind? What about all the charity events and walks that start in the spring? What about high school and college graduations? How will this affect the homeless and their encampments? All signs point to a tough few months ahead of us, so stay calm, and stay tuned.

 * ... SPOTTED ON TWITTER: "The wage gap isn't real. Men just tend to go for higher paying jobs, like doctor, engineer and CEO. Whereas women go for lower paying jobs like female doctor, female engineer and female CEO."

 * ... GRIMMWAY FARMS: Grimmway Farms is celebrating its 50th anniversary, one of the truly inspiring local stories of two brothers (Rob and Bob Grimm) who started hawking corn on street corners in Anaheim and went on to build what is now the nation's largest carrot producer. The Grimms have both died but CEO Jeff Huckaby is now at the helm and says Grimmway is weathering the coronavirus scare quite nicely. Orders for Grimmway's line of organic produce sold under the Cal-Organic brand are up, and fully 50 percent of all of Grimmway's business now comes from organic produce. The company employs some 7,000 people in seven states and ships product to 20 countries.

 * ... BISHOP BRENNAN:  The Kern County Catholic Prayer breakfast was held this week, featuring an address by Bishop Joseph Brennan from the Diocese of Fresno. The irony in the room was rich: here was the bishop who will make the final decision on the fate of Monsignor Craig Harrison, who has been accused by multiple men of sexually molesting them dating back to the late 1980s. Some Father Craig supporters boycotted the event although there was a robust turnout nonetheless. And this is the same bishop whose diocese is being sued by Father Craig for defamation. Finally, the event was held in the Monsignor Craig Harrison Youth Center at St. Francis. If Harrison is kicked out of the church, that signage will undoubtedly come down. 

 * ... SPOTTED ON FACEBOOK: A sign of the times.

* ... MEMORIES: Workers attend to the wreckage of the Porche Spider that James Dean was driving when he lost control and went off the road on Highway 46, dying at the scene.

Thanks to the new sales tax the city of Bakersfield is flush with cash, Bob Price takes his brand to KGET, an explosion of homeless along the bike path and the pigs that live amongst us

Welcome to Bakersfield Observed. Our mission is to celebrate life in Kern County by focusing on newsmakers and events and the local characters who make this community such a special place. The views expressed here are strictly my own and do not represent any other person or organization.

 * ... FLUSH WITH CASH: So did you read the city is suddenly flush with cash? That's right, reporter Sam Morgan reported in The Californian that even the most optimistic predictions of how

much money the new sales tax would generate have been exceeded. "The good financial fortunes have left city officials with the unique problem of needing to find new projects to fund," Morgan wrote.

 * ... ROBERT PRICE: It has been two weeks since Bob Price left The Californian after 30 years and started a new gig at KGET. He hit the ground running so to speak, appearing on air almost immediately in a coat and tie no less (inside joke for those of us who worked with Bob) and by my estimation he has been a smash hit. Not because he was fluid and graceful and knowledgeable on the air (that will undoubtedly come later) but rather because he was himself. The genius in KGET hiring Bob was exactly that: they hired the iconic Bob Price, rarely cranky, occasionally disheveled, but always self deprecating, funny and lovable. All of that TV smoothness will have to come later, but for now KGET should pride itself in adding a valuable brand to its lineup of talent. Tune in and enjoy the show.

 * ... SPOTTED ON TWITTER: "I sneezed in Costco today and it was the most attention I have gotten in the past year."

 * ... HOMELESS: Despite the best efforts of the city, which has now thrown a cool couple million dollars into trying to control the homeless explosion, the situation on the ground is out of control. All along the banks of the dry Kern River, from Beach Park out to Manor, I counted at least a dozen homeless encampments, some with multiple tents replete with campfires, vicious dogs and trash - piles of trash. Think back a few years ago when all the improvements were made along the river-shade areas, viewing stations, new paths and infrastructure. Today, the homeless own the entire riverbank, their dogs running loose and their trash extending for miles. And so it goes,

 * ... TRASH: Don't get me started on the people who treat our community like their own trash receptacle. Like whoever used Round Mountain Road to unceremoniously dump computers, computer screens, CPUs, printers and keyboards, strewn across the road.

 * ... CAMELLIA SHOW: The annual Camellia Show was held this weekend at the Bakersfield Racquet Club, drawing entries from across the state and dozens of entries locally. There are some 32,000 varieties of camellias, and here are a few of them.

 * ... GARDNER FIELD: Check out this Army training flight over Taft during War War II when Gardner Field (along with Minter Field) trained thousands of pilots for the war. Photo compliments of the Kern County of Old Facebook page.

 * ... MEMORIES: I spotted this old photo on the Kern County of Old Facebook page. Who remembers it?