Have we dodged the bullet when the Big Melt comes in June? One top official says flooding will be minimal in most places, a prominent businesswoman battles an illness and some really bad behavior in Old Town Kern

Welcome to Bakersfield Observed. Our mission is to celebrate life in Kern County by focusing on newsmakers and events and the local characters who make this community such a special place. The views expressed here are strictly my own and do not represent any other company or publication.

 * ... BIG MELT FLOODING: We are finally hearing some good news on the fears of local flooding during the Big Melt of the historic seasonal snowfall. And the reasons for hope came from Ryan Alsop, the county Chief Administrative Officer, in a wide ranging and candid interview with host J.R. Flores on

KERN talk radio this week. Alsop said the area of town west of Manor Street, meaning all the way down through town to Beach Park and all the way west past the Park at RiverWalk, should be spared major flooding when we hit the peak snowmelt in mid to late June. For folks living off the Kern River up Highway 178 and the riverfront property homeowners off Goodmanville Road, Alsop predicted there would be some issues with rising water, but nothing catastrophic. That's the best news we have had in a long time.

 

 * ... EL NINO: And speaking of the weather, forecasters say we may be in for another El Nino year, and that could mean yet another wet winter. More specifically, forecasters say there is an 80 percent chance we will transition to El Nino between May and July. Once that happens, the El Nino is expected to strengthen in the fall and winter. El Nine typically brings a lot of rain to California, even though we gave see plenty of that already.

 * ... MARY CHRISTENSON: One of the most prominent and visible Realtors in town, Mary Christenson, has been diagnosed with Rapid Onset Alzheimer's, her family has announced. Christenson is one of most successful Realtors in town, working for Watson Realtor for four decades by specializing in high end property and homes in the Southwest. The family made the announcement on Facebook and is asking for contributions on a GoFundMe page to help offset expenses. Forever positive and upbeat, Mary built a business based on customer service and personal care. She was also known for her lavish Easter decorations at her Seven Oaks home, which she opened to the public for pictures. Keep Mary and her family in your thoughts.

 * ... SPOTTED: East Bakersfield and Old Town Kern are home to some of our tastiest and most unique restaurants - Woolgrower's, Pyrenees Cafe, Arizona Cafe, Luigi's among others - but make no mistake the streets belong to the vagrants and homeless. Check out this post from some who spotted a street woman mistreating a dog.

 * ... FLOOD ZONE: The county of Kern has put out some preliminary maps predicting which areas are most likely to flood, and for now the danger zones seem to be for those living near the river or off the low spots on Highway 178. For your neighborhood, check out the Kern County flood maps here.

 * ... MEMORIES: The La Cresta neighborhood is one of the most desired in town, anchored by both Garces Memorial High School and Our Lady of Perpetual Help (OLPH). Check out what one house on El Cerrito sold for years ago. Thanks to the group Kern County History Fans.

 * ... MORE MEMORIES: And who remembers Larson's dairy? This picture of his old Larson's milk jar was spotted on the Kern County of Old Facebook page.

Hats off to all those high school graduates earning academic scholarships, a hunter's lament on California gun control and another walk down memory lane

 * ... GRADUATION: Hats off to all the high school graduates who have won hard earned academic scholarships to prestigious universities across the country. Kern County has always been well

represented on the athletic front, but we also produce outstanding students known for their academic prowess. And with college tuition steadily rising both for California and out of state universities, these partial and whole scholarships often make the difference between staying or going. So to all these unsung achievers, good luck.

* ... TRASH: Hats off to the city maintenance crews who descend on our local parks to clean up the bottles, trash and sandwich wrappings that so many of us carelessly leave behind after a picnic. Do you think these folks do this to their own homes?

 * ... GUN CONTROL: Bud King is a hunter with a clean record, and his frustration over new gun control laws moving through the California legislature is shared by many recreational shooters. Said King: "I am a hunter, a shooter, and a law abiding citizen, but with the new gun laws I will become a criminal. All my rifles whether it is bolt action or semi auto, has some kind of button to release the magazine. It will be just up to the judgment of law enforcement if my firearms bought legally make me a criminal or not.  I know the people coming up with these hare brained ideas would not live in my neighborhood without armed guards to protect them.  People are at their breaking point with their rights being taken away little by little each day. "

 * … SPOTTED ON TWITTER: "The true test of any loving relationship is having two phones and only one functioning charger."

 * … MORE TWITTER: "The challenge of modern relationships is proving more interesting than the other persons smartphone."

 * ... MEMORIES: It was Susan Reep who started the avalanche of memories about the old Carnation ice cream shop on Union Avenue, and now she shared another memory from her husband Mark Smith. Said Reep: he seems to remember a guy in Mettler in a peanut suit and people along the route trying to attract travelers into their restaurants, which was all very exciting to a 5-year-old kid. And then his parents always took the kids by the big horse and the big shoe on Chester. Such wonders!"

 * ... MARY: Howard Polland dropped me a note to recall taking his three daughters to the Carnation plant for ice cream, but he also sent thanks to Realtor Mary Christenson for sponsoring this blog. I thank Mary too, and from my experience, you could not have a better Realtor than Watson's Mary Christenson.

 * ... MORE MEMORIES: And lastly, another reader (who requested to remain anonymous) asked if anyone remembers "ice cream cubes back in the 1950s. They were about 2 inches square, packaged in a fold out light cardboard and lots of different flavors. I’ve been thinking they were made by Carnation and at that same plant. But, Peacock was another ice cream plant in Bakersfield and I wonder if any of your readers can help solve this nagging question."

Warren Carter dies of cancer. He was 74.

  Warren Carter, whose family built Watson Realty into one of the most powerful and influential real estate firms in Kern County, has lost his battle with cancer. He was 74. It was in 1982 that Carter purchased Watson Realty and led it through a period of hyper growth as Bakersfield expanded and grew. He was under the care of Dr. Ravi Patel at the Comprehensive Blood and Cancer Center (CBCC) at the time of his death. His wife, Leonore, died of cancer on Thanksgiving Day, 2009.

Warren Carter faces his own battle with cancer as our housing market takes a huge tumble

 * ... SICK BAY: Had a nice call the other day from Warren Carter, the long-time local businessman whose family has owned Watson Realty since 1982. At 74, Warren told me he is facing a tough battle with Stage 4 cancer and is under the care of Dr. Ravi Patel at the Comprehensive Blood and Cancer Center (CBCC). "I just wanted to express my gratitude for all the calls and cards I have gotten from so many people," he said. "I am so grateful to be here with all of my children around and blessed to be in such good hands with Ravi Patel."  Deeply spiritual, Warren told me his illness, in some way, is a blessing because it allows him to get his affairs in order and express his love for family and friends. Warren's wife, Lenore Carter, died on Thanksgiving Day 2009 after her own battle with cancer. If he is feeling up to it, Warren will be my guest this Friday on Californian Radio SmartTalk1230 to talk about his family business, cancer and his own spirituality. Join us at 10 a.m. If you don't have access to a radio, listen to us online by using the Radio Time application on the web.

 * ... HOUSING: Just when you think the housing market can't get any worse, it does. Thanks to thousands of foreclosures moving through the market like the swelling Mississippi River, home values fell another 3 percent in the first quarter. And economists expect things to get a lot worse before they get  better. All this is according to to the real estate website Zillow.com, which notes that home prices have now fallen for 57 consecutive months. Stan Humphries, Zillow's chief economist, told The Wall Street Journal that the monthly declines in February and March were "really staggering" and "a reflection of the true underlying demand, which is now apparent because most of the tax credit is out of the system and it's being completely overwhelmed by supply." Locally, an estimated half of all homes are "under water," meaning the value of the property is less than the amount owed on the loan. Humphries said prices won't hit bottom before next year, when values will drop another 7 percent to 9 percent.

 * ... OLE MISS: It's not every day that a local boy ends up at Ole Miss, the Deep South university located  in one of the country's most charming college towns, Oxford. But that's where Alexander Kimble Edmonston will be in the fall, choosing the Southeastern Conference school over places like the University of Oregon and the University of Arizona. His proud mother, former TV anchor Lisa Kimble Edmonston, said "it was the quintessential collegiate experience of Ole Miss and the charm of Oxford, not to mention the SEC conference, strong Greek system and land of southern belles and gentlemen that won him over. Craig and I couldn't be more thrilled." Alexander will graduate from Camden Military Academy in Camden, S.C., soon. In the fall, he'll likely be spotted at an Ole Miss football game wearing a white oxford-cloth, button-down shirt, khakis and striped rep tie as is the custom there.

 * ... WALK ON: Speaking of local kids in college, hats off to Liberty High School  graduate Jacob Frost who won a position on the University of Colorado football team as a wide receiver. Jacob was one of six walk on candidates, and after a grueling two weeks of practice he won the position. He is the son of Ken and Carol Frost. Ken is a geologist for Berry Petroleum and Carol runs a private tutoring service in Northwest Bakersfield.

 * ... DIVORCE: Can't say I'm totally surprised that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and wife Maria Shriver are separating after 25 years of marriage. The 25-year anniversary seems to have become a dangerous marker for Baby Boomers, and it's remarkable how many long-term marriages are dissolving right at the time folks become empty nesters. Remember Al Gore and wife Tipper? They split after 40 years of marriage. (AP photo)

 * ... BAKERSFIELDISM: You know you're from Bakersfield if you can't wait to move away and then can't wait to move back.