Have we dodged the bullet when the Big Melt comes in June? One top official says flooding will be minimal in most places, a prominent businesswoman battles an illness and some really bad behavior in Old Town Kern

Welcome to Bakersfield Observed. Our mission is to celebrate life in Kern County by focusing on newsmakers and events and the local characters who make this community such a special place. The views expressed here are strictly my own and do not represent any other company or publication.

 * ... BIG MELT FLOODING: We are finally hearing some good news on the fears of local flooding during the Big Melt of the historic seasonal snowfall. And the reasons for hope came from Ryan Alsop, the county Chief Administrative Officer, in a wide ranging and candid interview with host J.R. Flores on

KERN talk radio this week. Alsop said the area of town west of Manor Street, meaning all the way down through town to Beach Park and all the way west past the Park at RiverWalk, should be spared major flooding when we hit the peak snowmelt in mid to late June. For folks living off the Kern River up Highway 178 and the riverfront property homeowners off Goodmanville Road, Alsop predicted there would be some issues with rising water, but nothing catastrophic. That's the best news we have had in a long time.

 

 * ... EL NINO: And speaking of the weather, forecasters say we may be in for another El Nino year, and that could mean yet another wet winter. More specifically, forecasters say there is an 80 percent chance we will transition to El Nino between May and July. Once that happens, the El Nino is expected to strengthen in the fall and winter. El Nine typically brings a lot of rain to California, even though we gave see plenty of that already.

 * ... MARY CHRISTENSON: One of the most prominent and visible Realtors in town, Mary Christenson, has been diagnosed with Rapid Onset Alzheimer's, her family has announced. Christenson is one of most successful Realtors in town, working for Watson Realtor for four decades by specializing in high end property and homes in the Southwest. The family made the announcement on Facebook and is asking for contributions on a GoFundMe page to help offset expenses. Forever positive and upbeat, Mary built a business based on customer service and personal care. She was also known for her lavish Easter decorations at her Seven Oaks home, which she opened to the public for pictures. Keep Mary and her family in your thoughts.

 * ... SPOTTED: East Bakersfield and Old Town Kern are home to some of our tastiest and most unique restaurants - Woolgrower's, Pyrenees Cafe, Arizona Cafe, Luigi's among others - but make no mistake the streets belong to the vagrants and homeless. Check out this post from some who spotted a street woman mistreating a dog.

 * ... FLOOD ZONE: The county of Kern has put out some preliminary maps predicting which areas are most likely to flood, and for now the danger zones seem to be for those living near the river or off the low spots on Highway 178. For your neighborhood, check out the Kern County flood maps here.

 * ... MEMORIES: The La Cresta neighborhood is one of the most desired in town, anchored by both Garces Memorial High School and Our Lady of Perpetual Help (OLPH). Check out what one house on El Cerrito sold for years ago. Thanks to the group Kern County History Fans.

 * ... MORE MEMORIES: And who remembers Larson's dairy? This picture of his old Larson's milk jar was spotted on the Kern County of Old Facebook page.

The ugly side deals made by Gov. Jerry Brown in the gas tax deal begin to emerge, a hats off to the volunteers who made the Haggard childhood home unveiling a success, and Watson Realtor Mary Christenson brings back her colorful Easter display

 * ... GAS TAX: The details of how Gov. Jerry Brown managed to get the votes to pass the state's large gas tax hike emerging, and they are not pretty. It turns out Brown had to promise reluctant

legislators some $1 billion in pet projects (payola some call it) to assure passage. As the conservative blog FlashReport noted: "The deal is so bad they needed $1 billion in payola to buy enough votes to pass it. And shamefully, only 60 percent of the gas tax collected from SB 1, authored by Democrat Senator Jim Beall (D-San Jose), will actually be used for road maintenance and repairs. Environmentalists got plenty of taxpayer-funded payola as well including money for more public transit, and for walking and bicycling projects. SB 1 does nothing to relieve traffic congestion or expand highway lane capacity. If Democrats and Gov. Jerry Brown are trying to force California’s middle class out and small businesses, then it’s working."

 * ... HAGGARD HOME: The official unveiling of the Merle Haggard childhood home at Kern Pioneer Village was a success, but the real story unfolded behind the scenes thanks to scores of volunteers. Since the resignation and departure of museum director Zoot Velasco, the museum was been rudderless as its board of directors determines what they need in a future director. So it was left to the Board and other volunteers to pull off the event, among them Steve Sanders, Sheryl Barbich, Beth Pandol and Tracy Walker-Kiser.

 * ... EASTER: Mary Christenson, the award winning Watson Realtor, is at it again this Easter. This is the sixth year that Christenson has decorated her Seven Oaks home with thousands (3,000 at last count) of plastic Easter eggs to celebrate Holy Week. It has become something of a Seven Oaks tradition with families stopping by to snap pictures on the "bunny bench" and this explosive mosaic of color. The eggs will be removed the day after Easter.

 * ... SPOTTED: A woman hiking with two men on the Panorama Bluffs gingerly picks up a soiled diaper and walks it 30 feet to the nearest trash bin. Her male companions would not touch it.

 * ... OVERHEARD: A middle aged man is asking a friend if he would recall the name of an old bar that once stood at Panorama and River Road on the site now occupied by a car wash. Anyone remember?

 * ... SPOTTED ON TWITTER: "Marriage is like a public toilet. Those waiting outside are desperate to get in. Those inside are desperate to get out."

 * ... SPOTTED ON FACEBOOK: Posted by my friend Joe Drew: "Politicians and diapers have one thing in common. They should both be changed regularly, and for the same reason."

 * ... FIRESTONE: I've become a fan of the privately owned Firestone Grill on California Avenue and Highway 99. Twenty plus big screen TVs, robust salads and a fine signature burger, but what is with the tiny napkins that, unfolded, are barely the size of your palm?

 * ... 24TH STREET: Kelly Giblin dropped me this note about the houses being razed on 24th Street: "Each day as I drive past the homes and buildings on 24th Street that are being torn down for the street widening project, I can't help thinking that there must be a huge amount of material and fixtures in those structures that could be salvaged and repurposed. Does anyone know if that is being done? With all the structures being torn down for the widening project and the Centennial Corridor Project, I cannot help but think that it is a real tragedy if everything just ends up in a landfill."

When marriages end in a most public way via social media, Bakersfield's Joey Porter is in trouble again and remembering a time when Bako was the home of a bicycle speed record

* ... DIVORCE: By sheer coincidence a number of friends and acquaintances of mine are seeing their marriages end, or at worse slowly unravel in a most public manner via postings on Facebook and other forms of social media. The indescribable heartbreak of divorce for those of us who have

been through it - as I have - is compounded by the way social media allows people to peek behind the curtain of our private lives. (One social media ritual is a Stalinesque purge of the soon-to-be ex spouse's photos, a sure sign that something isn't right at home). My advice to these folks: whatever pain you feel now will eventually be replaced by hope, new beginnings and salvation. If you have a friend going through a tough time, do as the late poet Maya Angelou advised and "be the rainbow in somebody else's cloud."

 * ... MARY: Watson Realtor Mary Christenson was out for dinner at Wiki's Wine Dive and Grill the night of the Alabama-Clemson college football championship when a stranger asked her if she was rooting for Alabama. Why? She was wearing a black checked wool wrap reminiscent of the late Alabama football legend Bear Bryant's houndstooth cap. (Full disclosure: Mary and I have been friends for years, I have used her to buy and sell homes and she is the generous sponsor of this blog.)

* ... JOEY PORTER: Why can't Joey Porter just stay out of trouble? The former Foothill High star, now a coach for the Pittsburgh Steelers, was arrested outside a Pittsburgh bar for assaulting a doorman. This is just the latest in a long string of incidents that seem to follow Porter.

 * ... FRIENDLY: Did you see that a driver fell asleep at the wheel and ran his car into a restaurant on North Chester that used to be the home of the Friendly Cafe? The Friendly, and its famous multi-egg omelette, was one of the first places I visited after moving here years ago. And yes, I still miss it.

 * ... SPOTTED ON INSTAGRAM: "There should be a millennial edition of Monopoly where you just walk around the board paying rent, never able to buy anything."

 * ... SPOTTED ON TWITTER: "Filing my taxes online this morning and Vladimir Putin texted to say I shouldn't be using form 1040EZ."

 * ... SPOTTED BY PETER: Peter Wonderly spotted a young man at a local Target wearing a T-shirt that read, "I like big butts and taco trucks."

 * ... SCHWINN: My buddy Randy Martin of Covenant Community Services turned me on to this interesting factoid from a history site. In 1941, a man named Alfred Letourneur "was able to beat the motor-paced world speed record on a bicycle, reaching 108.92 miles per hour (175.29 km/h) on a Schwinn Paramount bicycle riding behind a car in Bakersfield, California."

* ... EAST HIGH: Sue Lueth reached out to me to remember Roger Chichester, a former biology teacher at East High who was so kind and inspirational to her daughter, who at one time was had a rare immune disorder and was facing a potential bone marrow transplant. "Mr. Chi in his usual graceful way, made her a  teacher's assistant during the time Physical Education classes were supposed to be held. This single act of kindness guided a scared isolated  teen to pursue a career in science. Her excitement was  invigorating and a joy to watch... We were blessed with the grace of God, to follow a much  less rigorous course of treatment, thus avoiding the need  for the transplant thanks to the incredible medical professionals at UCLA. My daughter went on to college to pursue her dreams. Ken Chichester is his father's son, and this gentle dynamic man is keeping his father's dream alive. In the obituary it lists a scholarship fund for East High  students excelling in Science. Donations can be made to: East High ASB, 2200 Quincy Street, Bakersfield, Ca. 94306 . Please write Roger Chichester on the memo section of the check.

Hats off to all those high school graduates earning academic scholarships, a hunter's lament on California gun control and another walk down memory lane

 * ... GRADUATION: Hats off to all the high school graduates who have won hard earned academic scholarships to prestigious universities across the country. Kern County has always been well

represented on the athletic front, but we also produce outstanding students known for their academic prowess. And with college tuition steadily rising both for California and out of state universities, these partial and whole scholarships often make the difference between staying or going. So to all these unsung achievers, good luck.

* ... TRASH: Hats off to the city maintenance crews who descend on our local parks to clean up the bottles, trash and sandwich wrappings that so many of us carelessly leave behind after a picnic. Do you think these folks do this to their own homes?

 * ... GUN CONTROL: Bud King is a hunter with a clean record, and his frustration over new gun control laws moving through the California legislature is shared by many recreational shooters. Said King: "I am a hunter, a shooter, and a law abiding citizen, but with the new gun laws I will become a criminal. All my rifles whether it is bolt action or semi auto, has some kind of button to release the magazine. It will be just up to the judgment of law enforcement if my firearms bought legally make me a criminal or not.  I know the people coming up with these hare brained ideas would not live in my neighborhood without armed guards to protect them.  People are at their breaking point with their rights being taken away little by little each day. "

 * … SPOTTED ON TWITTER: "The true test of any loving relationship is having two phones and only one functioning charger."

 * … MORE TWITTER: "The challenge of modern relationships is proving more interesting than the other persons smartphone."

 * ... MEMORIES: It was Susan Reep who started the avalanche of memories about the old Carnation ice cream shop on Union Avenue, and now she shared another memory from her husband Mark Smith. Said Reep: he seems to remember a guy in Mettler in a peanut suit and people along the route trying to attract travelers into their restaurants, which was all very exciting to a 5-year-old kid. And then his parents always took the kids by the big horse and the big shoe on Chester. Such wonders!"

 * ... MARY: Howard Polland dropped me a note to recall taking his three daughters to the Carnation plant for ice cream, but he also sent thanks to Realtor Mary Christenson for sponsoring this blog. I thank Mary too, and from my experience, you could not have a better Realtor than Watson's Mary Christenson.

 * ... MORE MEMORIES: And lastly, another reader (who requested to remain anonymous) asked if anyone remembers "ice cream cubes back in the 1950s. They were about 2 inches square, packaged in a fold out light cardboard and lots of different flavors. I’ve been thinking they were made by Carnation and at that same plant. But, Peacock was another ice cream plant in Bakersfield and I wonder if any of your readers can help solve this nagging question."

Dorothy Harrison, mother of Monsignor Craig Harrison, dies over Easter weekend, and enjoying the Sequoia National Forest on a picture perfect weekend

 * … DOROTHY: I was saddened to hear that Dorothy Harrison, the mother of Monsignor Craig Harrison, died this weekend. Dorothy had been diagnosed with state 4 pancreatic, liver and lung cancer over a year ago and was not expected to last this long. But she did and and as Monsignor Craig said,

she was an "amazing witness of faith." Services will be at St. Francis Church on Tuesday at 6 p.m. A rosary and funeral mass will be held Wednesday at 10 a.m.

* … WEEKEND: Could we have asked for better weather to bless us for an Easter weekend? I spent Saturday evening at a Passover Seder in a beautiful La Cresta back yard, surrounded by an eclectic mix of Jews, Christians, seekers, atheists and Deists. It made for a spirited discussion and the ultimate realization that wherever you stand on religion, friendships endure when we appreciate what we have in common and not our different personal views or faith.

 * … HIKE: One of our great gifts here in Bakersfield is that we are just a half hour drive from some of the most beautiful hiking country anywhere in the country. A few of us headed up the Kern River Canyon Sunday and spent a few hours hiking on Cow Flat Road in the Sequoia National Forest. Despite the lack of rain, there were plenty of wildflowers and the views of the canyon and beyond were stunning. All you need are shorts, hiking shoes and the will to get a workout.

* … VINTAGE: The renovation of an old restaurant building downtown continues to be the talk of the town. Located at the northeast corner of 18th Street and Chester Avenue, what was once a home to a taco and enchilada restaurant is being returned to its original glory, a 1910 structure that was built to house the old Security Trust Bank. It is fascinating to watch the old facade stripped off to reveal a beautiful old building that owner Sam Abed promises to restore.

* … GOOD FORM: Mary Christenson is best known as one of Watson's star Realtors, but each year around this time she is known for turning her yard into an Easter extravaganza. For the past four years she has covered her Seven Oaks front lawn with plastic Easter eggs - some 1,500 of them - to the delight of neighborhood children who stop to enjoy the scene. The eggs, along with her array of colorful blooming roses, make for quite a scene.

 * … BAD FORM: A pox on whoever stole the special palm planter next to the door of the Bakersfield Community House near the Bakersfield Museum of Art. This is a worthy organization that operates on a shoestring budget. The palm was planted to welcome folks to the senior center.

 * … MEMORIES: Wilson Call added to those readers who remember Toohey's steak house in La Cresta. As he remembers it: "Toohey was very controversial. If you would ask for steak sauce he would tell you his steaks are the best and you don't need any sauce!"

Earning your money in a recession and more areas of town hit with rash of burglaries

 * ... REALTOR PRAISE: There are few harder jobs in this economy than being a Realtor. The real estate market is in a major funk, home prices have been sliding for three straight years, credit is tight, banks can be difficult to work with and the appraisal business is a mess. Many Realtors who were flying high several years ago have simply gotten out of the business, but the hardiest of the lot remain, and they can be invaluable. I sold a house recently and encountered the usual challenges of the 2010 Great Recession: an escrow that fell through, a low appraisal,  picky buyers, price concessions and seemingly endless open houses. It was an agonizing ordeal and would never have happened without the diligence that my Realtor - in this case Mary Christenson of Watson Realty - gave my case. How many times have you come home to find your Realtor on her hands and knees with a bottle of Pledge shining your wood floors? Our community is blessed with many good Realtors, and this year they are earning every penny of their commissions.

 * ... FARMER'S MARKET: Had the chance to check out the new farmer's market over at the newly renovated Mill Creek Park behind the Bakersfield Museum of Art. There were about a dozen vendors and the fruit and vegetables were splendid: fresh corn, tomatoes, various kinds of squash, scallions, melons, strawberries, blue berries, dried fruit and herbs. It runs every Tuesday from 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. and is worth checking out. Another farmer's market is out at the corner of Brimhall Road and Calloway Drive on Saturday mornings.

* ... MAN OF GOD: Rev. Peter J. Pacini, Bakersfield High School class of 1985,  was in town recently on his way to a new assignment in South Bend, Indiana. That might prove touchy for Rev. Pacini, particularly since he graduated from USC - one of the University of Notre Dame's arch rivals - in electrical engineering. He will be installed as pastor of St. Adalbert and St. Casimir parishes in South Bend, home of the Fighting Irish. His parents are local residents Pete and Rosemary Pacini.

 * ... CRIME WATCH: Here are more neighborhoods that readers have told me that have been hit with burglaries over the last few months: Laurelglen, Silver Creek,  Oleander, Westchester and the Bakersfield Country Club area.


  * ... COACHLIGHT: Reader Barbara Fleming added her own memories of the old Coachlight Inn. "Every time you have written about the Coachlight Inn my heart has smiled. My husband Jim was district manager of the Social Security (office) when we met. The Coachlight Inn become our place that we loved to go for romantic dinners, a martini and great conversation. The place is still high in my memories."

* ... BAKERFIELDISMS: Two gems from reader Fred McCaa: You know you're  from Bakersfield when "you can get sun burn by moonlight, and if you fail to stop at the stop sign, just stop twice the next time."

BakersfieldLife magazine features 11 inspiring women from Kern County

 Make sure to check out this weekend's BakersfieldLife magazine, which will feature some of the amazing women role models in our community. Among those being featured are former mayor Mary K. Shell (that's her on the cover), Sheryl Barbich, Judi McCarthy, Barbara Smith, Sheryl Chalupa, Diane Hopkins, Cathy Abernathy, Mikie Hay, Rosa Corona, Mary Christenson and Ginger Moorhouse. The magazine comes out Saturday inside the home-delivered Californian.

 

Local housing market struggles to get back on its feet, while one local school serves up some healthy eating

* ... LOCAL HOUSING: I heard from a few local Realtors after I posted an update on the local housing market. My own personal Realtor of choice is the hard-working Mary Christenson of Watson-Touchstone (pictured). She reported good buyer activity and reduced inventory, especially in homes under $400,000. She also noted the first time tax buyer credit ends April 30th and "buyers need to get offers accepted now in order to close by that date. I've had very good closing activity for sales generated in December during the last five weeks-by the end of February I will have closed a full 50 percent of my entire sales volume for last year!" Meanwhile, fellow Watson Realtor Katy Glentzer took me to task for citing the online real estate sales website Zillow in reporting slow sales in other markets. "We are not singing the housing Blues in Bakersfield," she said. "For the past several months our prices have increased. Yes, inventory is down, thanks to the banks wising up. Is there anything wrong with supply and demand? They are releasing foreclosures at a slower pace and actually helping owners through the short sale process."  We'll keep an eye on the local market and my thanks to Mary and Katy for their input.


 * ... HEALTHY EATING: I received an interesting email from local writer Teresa Adamo about a new after school day-care snack at the Downtown School. Each child receives a bowl holding different fruit, all cut into chunks. The kids are each given a plastic glove to gather their chunks of choice, and a skewer for the creation of their fruit kabob. Said Teresa: "As you can imagine, it was a huge hit! I saw happy kids making second kabobs because they enjoyed the process so much, not to mention the ingredients! The fruit choices included: oranges, bananas, cantaloupe, honeydew melon and kiwi. Of course, from a Mom's perspective, I saw the healthy value in this interactive snacking. With the alarming rates of childhood obesity -- not to mention the unknown, long-term affects & impact on health care -- this scene was at least a little reassuring." Someone from that school is thinking.

 * ... GAUCHO WORLD: I heard from two University of California at Santa Barbara graduates who wanted to give their alma mater a shout-out. Marciano Flores, activity director of the AVID program at East Bakersfield High School, wrote to say he was both a proud Gaucho and an East High Blade. Also weighing in was old friend and Gaucho grad Laura Wolfe, who is now working with the Arts Council of Kern after many years in development at Cal State Bakersfield.

* ... CAR CLUB DONATION: Hats off to the Bakersfield Car Club and its annual Super Cruise show that was held at the Kern County Fairgrounds. Club member Roy Romagno told me the club raised more than $10,000 to benefit the the Society for Disabled Children of Kern County. Always nice to see local folks pitching it to help others during a difficult year.

* ... BAKERSFIELDISM: Reader Bobbie Hulson offered this one. "You know you are from Bakersfield when even old people pick their parking spaces by how much shade there is, rather than how close they are to the door." And add this one: "Someone from out of town talks about how foggy it is and you tell them, 'just wait!'"

Armanda Bosley, longtime owner of Lou Ella's, dies; UC Santa Barbara alumni looking for reunion

 * ... BRAIN DRAIN: Reader Elaine McNearney wrote to tell me about all the alumni from University of California at Santa Barbara who call Bakersfield home. Apparently there are so many local kids applying to UCSB that Bakersfield is one of the few communities with a full-time UCSB staff person, working primarily at South High but also at Bakersfield High. McNearney said Catalina Mendiola works to help kids through the maze of paperwork required to be admitted to the UC and tries to identify students who qualify for the Research Mentoring Program targeting students from different disciplines. In addition, she said "a group of UCSB alumni are trying to locate other Kern County alumni and plan some social activities. So if this little ditty makes it to print please plug our brand new FaceBook page ...UCSB Alumni of Kern County." Any other Santa Barbara alums out there?

 * ... RIP ARMANDA BOSLEY: If you have lived in Bakersfield any length of time, you will remember the old Baker Street location of Lou Ella's Children's Boutique, which catered to generations of local families. One of the long-time former co-owners was Armanda Bosley, who died of a heart attack last week. She was 95. Reader Greg Cowan wrote to tell me of her passing, calling his aunt "a Bakersfield  institution" who worked alongside her daughter, Brenda, to serve thousands of local families. Bosley's parent's immigrated from France, and her father opened what would become the original Pyrenee's Bakery. After school, a young Armanda would deliver fresh bread to customers on her bicycle. She and Brenda purchased Lou Ella's in the 1960s and it served our community well for over 40 years. (The store later changed hands and moved to the Southwest). If you have memories of Armanda or Lou Ella's on Baker Street, feel free to email me and I will share on this blog.  Keep this special family in your thoughts.

 * .. NO NAME BAND: It's always nice to see local folks getting together for a worthy cause. That's what happened over at B. Ryder's bar and restaurant on White Lane Thursday when the "No-Name Band" was scheduled to play for a crowd to support the Bakersfield Ronald McDonald House at Memorial Hospital. The leader of this Baby Boomer band is Dr. John Heidrick, who along with Dr. Raj Patel owns Preferred Family Physicians off Truxtun Extension. You will no doubt recognize some of the "No Name Band" members: Jill Harlander on vocals, Jerry Stewart on guitar and vocals, Tim Montgomery on drums, harmonica flute and guitar, Leslie King on bass, John Brock on drums, Mike Hall on lead guitar, Michael Bell on rhythm guitar and Dr. Heidrick on guitar.

 * ... VALLEY PUBLIC TV: Learned the other day that Esther Brandon, a former local First Five Kern Commissioner, has been appointed to the Board of Directors of Valley Public Television. This is yet another indication of how KVPT is reaching out to the south Valley, and Kern County in particular, to gain support through partnerships and collaborative efforts. Brandon is active in Temple Beth El off Panorama Drive, has two boys (one at the University of Colorado and the other a senior at Garces Memorial High School, not to mention a sweet yellow lab named Blue) and is married to Rogers Brandon, president of the American General Media radio group.

 ... * BAKERSFIELDISMS: You know you're from Bakersfield when .... "You no longer associate bridges or rivers with water" and "You swear that just last week there was an orchard where there is now a whole new housing development."

Bako bits: From social networking as a marketing tool to rumblings at CSUB to upside down mortgages

Wrapping up the week and cleaning off my desk as we head into another weekend. School starts next week and fall is coming. Let's get to it:

* ... RUMBLINGS OVER AT CSUB: I seem to have hit a nerve with my mention that longtime Cal State community liaison Laura Wolfe had been ousted. (read previous post here) Got a couple calls from CSUB insiders who were lamenting the loss of Laura, who spent 14 years with the university building better relations between the school and the community. Laura worked for Mike Chertok, who retired and was replaced by Beverly Byl, brought in by President Horace Mitchell. Give Horace credit: he has single handedly raised the stature of the university in the community through sheer good will, focus and great personal charm. Which is why insiders are puzzled over the choice of Beverly, who one person described as one who moves through a room with sharp elbows. No doubt the dismissal of Laura Wolfe was a move that addressed two concerns: one budgetary and the other the desire to build your own team. President Mitchell called me and said there was no "personal agenda" in the firing of Wolfe but rather it was a consequence of the budget crisis. He noted, for example, that the state budget contribution to CSUB was less this year than it was five years ago when he came on board. Still, there's lots of chatter about Byl, including her desire to bring all the fund raising under one umbrella as opposed to athletics raising money for one thing and an academic endeavor for another. Folks are talking and the university really can't afford to squander the good will Horace has earned. No doubt there will be more on this later.



* ... MARKETING ON FACEBOOK? Read with interest a piece that said 63 percent of all companies planned to increase their spending on social media this year. That's not too surprising since a recent study by the Association of National Advertisers said 66 percent of marketers have now used social media in some form. The top platforms being utilized: Facebook (74 percent), YouTube (65 percent), Twitter (63 percent) and LinkedIn (60 percent). Locally, a good example would be Mary Christenson, the longtime high end Watson-Touchstone Realtor who has embraced Facebook and made it one of her marketing devices. If she lists a new home in Seven Oaks, she'll post a message on it. Trouble with appraisals? She's all over it. Mary is savvy enough to recognize there's a terrific audience and all it takes is her time. At The Californian, marketing director Rob Meszaros has used Facebook and Twitter extensively in marketing the new Monday-Friday tabloid that debuts next week.

* ... UPSIDE DOWN MORTGAGE? Amazed to read in The Californian yesterday that fully half of all mortgages in Bakersfield are now upside down. That means the homeowners basically owe more than the home is worth, thanks to months of falling housing prices. That can't bode well for future foreclosures. The depth of recession cannot be underestimated. Last week it was reported that one in every 10 mortgages in the entire state of California is in foreclosure.

* ... LATIN SHOW AT METRO GALLERIES: Don Martin over at the Metro Galleries downtown is busy preparing for Latination, a project sponsored by his gallery and MAS magazine. The deadline for entries for the show is next week, so drop them off between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m. Wednesday over at Metro, 1604 19th Street. Selected pieces in the juried exhibit will be displayed at the gallery during September. Contact Don with any questions at 634-9598.

Staring down the barrel at a double dip recession, Laura Wolfe out at CSUB and country clubs feeling the pain

Right when you think things are getting better - a slight uptick in housing sales, a successful "cash for clunkers" program - the talking heads and analysts start warning us of a "double dip recession." Don't mean to be alarmist but more than a few noteworthy economists think we are far from out of the woods, and are fearing the current good times on the stock market will soon give way to a darker new reality. Consider:

* ... LAURA WOLFE OUT IN CSUB SHAKEUP: Before we get to the economy was saddened to hear that Laura Wolfe, longtime vice president of development for the university, has lost her job, allegedly due to the budget crisis. At least that's what a memo from Beverly Byl, new vice president of university advancement, says. Other insiders speculate it's Byl's way of using the budget crisis to build her own team, and it's leaving many folks with a bad taste in their mouths. Laura is a longtime fixture in the community, well liked and well respected, and one who has worked hard on behalf of the university, even when so many campus academics felt that building community relations was beneath their pay grade. I spoke with Laura who said simply she was looking forward to spending more time with her family and preparing for her son's bar mitzvah. She said she "hopes to do well by doing good." Now that's a class act.



* ... IT'S UGLY OUT THERE: Okay, back to the economy and folks, it ain't pretty. The American Bankruptcy Institute reports consumer bankruptcies jumped 34.3 percent in July, compared to last year, as high debt and unemployment took their toll. Also:
SECTOR ANALYSIS: A new survey of real estate investors by PricewaterhouseCoopers projects that over the next 12 months, apartment values will fall 7 percent, regional malls will drop 8.5 percent, warehouses will drop 8.2 percent and office values will decline 11.4 percent. This is the long expected commercial real estate crunch and no doubt we don't be able to avoid it.
BANK FAILURES: While we have been averaging 5 to 7 bank closures per week the past few weeks, it is interesting to note that the high was set in 1989 when 60 banks were closed in one week.
HOUSING DECLINE: Home ownership in the US reached nearly 70 percent in 2004, but has since fallen to 67.4 percent as of the second quarter of 2009. Interestingly, about 57 percent of housing units that are added to the market become rentals these days.
HOUSING SUPPLY: A study by ZipRealty finds the supply of homes available for sale in major metropolitan areas fell 2.5 percent in July compared to June. Yet, as reported here earlier, fully one in 10 home mortgages in California is now in a state of default



* ... MEANWHILE, OUT AT THE COUNTRY CLUB: Also learned that privately owned Seven Oaks Country Club has been hit so hard by this recession that it is reducing its full equity initiation fee from $30,000 to $10,000. In a letter to members, general manager Don Ciota says the club has sold only four new full equity memberships this year. Good news for new members but what about the folks who paid full retail? Another sign of the times.

* ... INSPIRATIONAL QUOTE: Lastly, spotted this Facebook post from Realtor Mary Christenson and thought I would pass it along. It's a good one:
"You never know when one act, or one word of encouragement can change a life forever." ~ Zig Ziglar

One more thing to worry about: Why low appraisals may be scuttling the housing recovery

It was a few weeks ago that Watson-Touchstone Realtor Mary Christenson tipped me off to the latest hiccup standing in the way of a housing recovery: new federal regulations that are leading to flawed appraisals and derailing sales. Here's the deal: a buyer and seller come to terms to sell a home for say $400,000, yet the appraisal comes in consistently low, say $350,000. And the home had multiple bids and the comps hold up in the area. So what's wrong here? Mary and others point to rules that went into effect May 1 requiring lenders that sell loans to Fannie Maie or Freddic Mac to set up a firewall between appraisers and loan officers. All this to prevent "improper influence" between the appraiser and the Realtors. (Check out a Seattle Times story for a more complete explanation.
Now I see CNBC has picked up the story and I include a brief report from their website here. This is a serious issue, folks, and another case where over-regulation has simply gummed up the works. We have a market that is struggling to find its sea legs and regulation that is killing legitimate deals. Enough already.

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Gary Crabtree, one of the foremost experts on the issue locally, said the issue is complicated by the fact that local appraisers are being "low balled" by outsiders who know little of the market. I'm excerpting parts of an email Gary shared with me. Feel free to contact him for a fuller explanation. Said Gary:

"The reason the appraisals are holding up the closings is that the AMC's now control the purse strings of the fee. Once the appraiser would receive $375 to $400 for his services, today they receive as little as $175 to $285 from these AMC's. The experienced and ethical appraisers can not afford to produce a creditable report for that kind of money. So who is doing the appraisals? The lesser experienced, geographically incompetent and sloppy appraisers who are forced to produce a 'shoddy' product because they don't have the time to do a "creditable" report. To exacerbate things, now that they have independence from pressure from lenders, they can 'low ball' to their hearts content and not have to worry about anything. I have been swamped with calls from agents, buyers, sellers wanting to know why their appraisals are low? Well, see above for the answer.

"So who is hurt by HVCC (Home Valuation Code of Conduct)? Well lets see, first the experienced and geographically competent appraisers like Rich and me; the buyers who have been 'low balled' and lose the deal or has to come up with additional cash down; the sellers who are sometimes forced to lower their price to make the deal; the mortgage broker who can't close a deal because they are held captive by the AMC's on appraisal delivery and fees; the taxpayers who get to pay for the 'write downs' of the banks, Freddie, Fannie all of whom have been subsidized by the TARP money... How is the market to recover with this type of forces in play? "

Economic outlook for California is bleak, but Bakersfield poised to be among the first to recover

In these times we take every nugget of good news, embrace it, rub it like a genie's lamp for good luck and hope more good tidings come tomorrow. So I'm celebrating a report in the Sacramento Bee today (thanks to Ray Karpe of Karpe Real Estate for passing it along) that says while the economic outlook for California remains bleak, Bakersfield will be first major California job market to recover within two years. The story quotes projections from IHS Global Insight, an economic forecasting firm, and paints a fairly bleak outlook for the country as a whole. (read the full story here) But hey, we're looking for signs of hope, right? So I'm going to celebrate the fact that - for reasons not explained in the story - only Bakersfield will recover within two years. The rest of California is much farther out. Some excerpts from the story:

"The areas poised for a jobs rebound later this year are: Anchorage, Alaska; Champaign-Urbana, Ill.; Coeur d'Alene, Idaho; Columbia, Mo.; Laredo, Texas; and the Houma-Bayou Cane- Thibodaux areas of Louisiana.
"Only five areas are expected to see a similar jobs recovery in 2010: Las Cruces, N.M., and El Paso, San Antonio and the McAllen-Edinburg-Pharr and Austin-Round Rock areas of Texas.
"Most of the country – 286 of 325 metro areas covered in the IHS analysis – aren't likely to regain their pre-recession employment levels until at least 2012.
"Of these areas, 112 probably won't return to their recent peaks until 2014 or later. These include Rust Belt towns such as Cleveland, Dayton and Akron, Ohio; Detroit, Warren and Flint, Mich.; the hurricane-ravaged Gulfport-Biloxi, Miss., area; and the greater Los Angeles region, where the housing bubble and high unemployment have strangled the local economy.
"Already hard-hit by the economic downturn, the outlook for California is bleak. IHS Global Insight predicts Bakersfield will be the only California job market to recover within two years. Sacramento won't recover until early 2013; Los Angeles not until sometime after 2014.
"Overall, more than 70 percent of California's workers live in metro areas that won't fully recover until at least 2013, the study found.



Meanwhile, I heard from Watson Touchstone Realtor Mary Christenson today, following up on my earlier post about low appraisals torpedoing house sales across Bakersfield. Mary passed along an email from Charles McMillan, president of the National Association of Realtors, detailing his plans to meet with officials at the Federal Housing Finance Agency to clear this logjam. Talk to any Realtor in town on you will hear the same gripe: we have willing buyers and sellers, but the banks and appraisers are all under such pressure that appraisals are consistently coming in low, effectively scuttling deals and pushing us farther away from a rebound. Ugh.

Our local economy: showing a few signs of hope but still struggling to find its sea legs

Nothing would make me happier than to report that the economic recovery was at hand, but wishing so won't make it happen. Most business people I talk to are of the same refrain: it's not getting any worse, but it sure isn't getting any better. In other words: we're bumping along the bottom here like the German submarine in the movie Das Boot, waiting for something to happen to improve things.



There have been signs of life in the real estate industry as we work through the foreclosures, and there certainly seems to be a pent up desire among buyers and sellers. But now comes a new hiccup: it appears multiple bids are being made, and accepted, but the appraisals are coming in low. I heard this from two Realtors this weekend, Louie Gregorio and Mary Christenson. Saw Louie at Starbucks and his complaint was that the appraisals are consistently coming in low, thus scuttling many deals. Mary, on her Facebook page, agreed:

"This appraisal issue is causing all kinds of issues in Bakersfield as well! We are now seeing multiple offers again in the $500+ price range home--then the appraisals are shooting us in the foot! It's happened twice this month to two of my escrows!" she wrote.

So what's the problem? It appears it all started with one of the housing "reforms" that went into effect May 1 prohibiting loan officers, mortgage brokers and real estate agents from selecting appraisers. (read one version of the story here) The rule was meant to prevent inflated appraisals like those that proliferated during the housing boom, according to the story. It read, in part:

"The rule falls under the new Home Valuation Code of Conduct, the result of an agreement between Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, the Federal Housing Finance Authority and the New York state attorney general to enhance independence and accuracy of the appraisal process. It applies to lenders that sell single-family mortgage loans to government sponsored enterprises."

Okay, well enough. But let's hope this thing doesn't derail a recovery that already is long overdue. Meanwhile, I've been noticing more dealer tags on new cars around town, a welcome sign that perhaps car sales are perking up. Our local dealers say they are doing better, though they are far from out of the woods. Nonetheless, it's good to see some dealer tags out there.