Remembering the great Bakersfield Dust Storm of 1977 and celebrating some good news on the economic front as major retailers head for Bakersfield

 * … DUST: This week's dust storm got me to thinking about the Great Bakersfield Dust Storm of 1977 that left several people dead and caused millions of dollars in damages. That event happened in

mid December and, like now, followed several years of severe drought. The day began normal enough, with a low of 44 degrees, but by midday it had warmed considerably and then the winds came roaring in, blowing swamp coolers off roofs and leaving the town littered with debris. Sound familiar? Time to pray for some rain.

* … RETAIL: One of the surest signs of a recovering economy comes when major retailers free up capital to expand into new markets. And that's why we should all be encouraged with news that retailers like Nordstrom Rack and the organic grocer Sprouts Farmers Market may be coming to the Shops at RiverWalk. These aren't done deals yet but all indications are that both retailers are Bakersfield bound. Another good sign: apparently the opening of the Hobby Lobby here was such a big success that the crafts store is already thinking of expanding in the old Mervyn's building. Golden Corral is another business that came to Bakersfield and enjoyed a near record grand opening and is one of the restaurant chain's top performing outlets.

 * … HOT CITIES: For the third year in a row the city of Atlanta has been ranked the top city where people are moving. This is the word from the truck rental company Penske, which tracks where folks are moving. Rounding out the top ten of most popular places to move were  Tampa/Sarasota, Fla.,  Dallas/Fort Worth, Orlando, Phoenix, Houston, Seattle, Chicago, Denver and Las Vegas. (file photo of Atlanta)

* … LAMENT: My old friend Bryan Kelly always has an interesting take on thing, and here is his lament on today's society. "My little hometown in Texas, as did so many others, died in the early 1960s when the interstate highway system by-passed it. In the 1980s a prison was built and the inmates were put to work cleaning the roadways, parks and lake area. They also keep schools, state, city and county buildings painted and in good repair. The townspeople show their appreciation. Little old ladies are always baking cookies and muffins for the work crews. Here?  If kids are asked to take the last five minutes of the day to pick up litter which has blown over the fence into the school yard, a mother has a fit. This is not her kid's problem!"

 * … BAD FORM: Sometimes it's hard to believe how reckless some of our local drivers can be. This story came from a colleague. "Around 9 p.m.  (on a recent) Saturday, I was at the Ming Avenue-Ashe Road intersection preparing to turn left (west) onto Ming from Ashe. The westbound traffic on Ming had a protected left turn southbound onto Ashe, and two women in a white van began turning left. Out of the corner of my eye, I saw a grey SUV (might have been a Bronco or Suburban) barreling toward the intersection against a red light. The SUV slammed into the van, smashing parts of both cars' front ends; though luckily it could have been far worse, as neither car was traveling very fast. I got ready to put on my flashers and get out of the car to help, when suddenly the driver of the SUV peels out, turns sharply and screams off into the night northbound down Ashe. The white van, still drivable as well, heads off south down Ashe. I made a U-turn, assuming they would pull over and I would assist them as best I could. Nope. They drove off as well, beating me to a street light and off into distance — with most of their front bumper peeled off. It all happened pretty quickly and I wasn't able to recall license plate numbers or specific vehicle descriptions, but man: Two cars, a red light run, a collision and both take off from the scene."

Today's economy: a low-grade fever that refuses to go away, and why the end is nowhere in sight

If it's true we all misjudged the depths of this recession - and we all did - it's also true that the days of expecting miracles are over. Talk to business people around our community and you'll hear it over and again: "I'd like to be optimistic, but my financials and my instincts tell me we're in for the long haul." With each day that passes there are further indications that this recession is deeper than anyone imagined, and will last longer than anyone dared to fear. Consider these sobering facts:

* UNEMPLOYMENT ... The jobless rate is approaching 15 percent in Kern County, and that doesn't count the number of "underemployed," meaning those on part time status or earning meager wages on a cash basis. Count those in and almost one in five people cannot make ends meet.
* A BANKRUPT STATE... California is nearing bankruptcy and issuing IOUs that are fetching only 80 cents on the dollar in the open market. Does anyone have any hope that our dysfunctional Legislature can agree on anything?
* FEDERAL BAILOUT ... There's a growing sense that the Obama stimulus package is not working, leading companies and individuals to hunker down and spend less.
* MORTGAGE MESS ... It's been well documented here but the housing crisis may be getting worse, not better, and ham handed attempts at regulation are causing appraisals to come in consistently low, scuttling many otherwise legitimate deals.



* BANKS IN TROUBLE ... U.S. bank regulators closed seven more institutions last week, a clear indication that the loans on the books of many banks continue to deteriorate, forcing the Feds' hand. No doubt there will be more.
* RAIL TRAFFIC CRIPPLED ... One key indicator is the amount of material carried by rail, be it construction material or food headed for processing. One study last week showed overall rail traffic down more than 20 percent year over year.
* PROPERTY TAX APPEALS ... Counties across the country are being beseiged by appeals to lower property taxes, further hamstringing the ability of local governments to spend on roads and repairs.
* GAS PRICE SPIKE ... The price of gasoline is showing signs of another move up, and if that happens the consumer will be even more strapped.
* LOCAL BUSINESS PULLBACK ... Local businesses say they simply aren't hiring, and probably won't even if things get considerably better. Why? Stung once by the recession and worried about spending, they will simply be content to remain smaller.
* COMMERCIAL BUST? ... Some analysts predict that the next big shoe to drop will be in commercial real estate, with some predicting the worst will come in mid to late 2010.



All of this is bad news for the "consumer led" recovery that experts say we need. Until the credit crisis passes and people have jobs, there will be no recovery of any significance.

A New World Order

Jeff Jarvis (a link to his buzzmachine is listed below) is one of our great thinkers and today he puts forth a good argument linking the current economic upheaval with the maturation of the internet. I lifted this straight from his blog:

Fred Wilson says what I’ve been thinking: That we’re in more than a financial crisis, we’re in a fundamental restructuring.

Clearly the economic downturn is the direct cause of most of these failures but I believe it is the straw that broke the camel’s back in most cases.

The internet, now closing in on 15 years old in its mainstream incarnation as the world wide web, is in many cases the underlying cause of these business failures.

Bits of information flowing over a wire (or through the air) are just more efficient than physical infrastructure….

This downturn will be marked in history as the time where many of the business models built in the industrial era finally collapsed as a result of being undermined by the information age.

Fred outlines fundamental changes in retail, banking, and auto sales, to name three industries, and then is kind enough to plug my book for more.

I also argued in a recent Guardian column that not only will specific industries be overtaken by this change but so will the structure of the economy as - post-crisis, post-Google - companies and sectors will no longer grow to critical mass through vast ownership funded by vast debt but instead, Google-like, by building networks atop platforms. Industries will change and so will the structure in which they operate.

The point in any case is that it would be a mistake to think that we will come out of this financial crisis soon wounded but still seeing the world the way we saw it before. In the graveyard of camels with broken backs, we will see a new world newly structured and we’re only beginning to figure it out.

In this sense, media - music, newspapers, TV, magazines, books - may be lucky to be among the first to undergo this radical restructuring. Communications was also early on because it - like media - appeared close to the internet and Google (though, as I say in the post below, it’s a mistake to see the internet strictly as media or as pipes; it’s something other). Other industries and institutions - advertising, manufacturing, health, education, government… - are next and they, like their predecessors, don’t see what’s coming, especially if they think all they’re undergoing is a crisis. The change is bigger, more fundamental, and more permanent than that.