Bakersfield real estate market is on fire, reflecting a national trend, Stephon Carter returns home to coach the Centennial High men's squad and another local favorite son - Thomas Benham - also returns home.

Welcome to Bakersfield Observed. Our mission is to celebrate life in Kern County by focusing on newsmakers and events and the local characters who make this community such a special place. The views expressed here are strictly my own and do not represent any other company or publication.

 * ... REAL ESTATE: There is no doubt that our local real estate market is healthy. So healthy, in fact, that sellers are receiving multiple offers and many times well over the asking price. Apparently, according to The New York Times, that is part of a national trend that is seeing sales of homes in the suburbs and mid-size cities taking off. The Times said real home prices, adjusted for inflation, rose 45 percent from February 2010 through May 2020, but experts are warning nothing lasts forever. "It

would be easy to assume that the boom times for housing will go on forever, but that would require ignoring the disaster that led to the most recent great financial crisis, a little more than a decade ago," the paper said. Locally, people like Ronda Newport (president of the Bakersfield Association of Realtors) notes that mortgage rates remain near all-time lows and that Bakersfield is starting to see folks from other areas move here to work remotely while getting more house for their buck.

 * ... THOMAS BENHAM: And speaking of those who see the bargain that Bakersfield is, it was heartening to read Herb Benham's column in the Sunday Californian indicating that his youngest son - Thomas - and his fiancé were moving back to Bakersfield. A world-class chef who attended Cal-Berkeley, Thomas is bringing Alicia, his east-coast born fiancé, with him and they are negotiating to buy a home downtown. Now tell me where two young kids could afford to buy a home other than here? This is the kind of happy ending story we all need for a Sunday.

 * ... STEPHON CARTER: Stephon Carter, the former Garces and CSUB basketball player who wooed crowds with this athleticism, has been named the head coach of the Centennial High School men's squad. Carter led Garces to three consecutive CIF Central Section titles (2007-2009) before continuing at CSUB where he ended his collegiate career as the program's all-time leading scorer. He played semi-professional basketball in Spain, Mexico and Canada for six years.

 * ... MORE STEPHON: If you want to hear Stephon Carter's story, tune into KERN NewsTalk 96.1 FM Tuesday at 2:30 p.m. when I will interview him on The Richard Beene Show.

* ... SPOTTED ON TWITTER: "My son is wearing a MAGA cap and a Vote Trump 2020 button. He’s been spat on, punched and verbally abused.  I hate to think what will happen when he leaves the house."

 * ... HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Happy birthday to Megan McCarthy, daughter of Judy McCarthy and Congressman Kevin McCarthy. The young lady, who grew up a political child with rare access to national politics, turned 24 years old.

 * ... MEMORIES: Take a look of this old building on 34th Street that I spotted on the Kern County History Fans Facebook page.

Colorado Supreme Court strikes down local laws banning fracking, Stanford rejects a plan to divest in fossil fuels and are experiencing another housing bubble?

 * ... FRACKING: The folks trying to outlaw and demonize fossil fuels were dealt a setback this week when the Colorado Supreme Court struck down local government prohibitions on hydraulic fracturing. The court ruled that a moratorium in Fort Collins, as well as an outright ban in Longmont, were invalid because state law pre-empted them. At least two other cities in Colorado, and Boulder County, have anti-fracking regulations that could be affected by the rulings. Meanwhile, the Stanford University board of trustees has rejected the idea of divesting in fossil fuels, despite pressure from students and anti fossil fuel types. In a rare example of common sense on a university campus, the board noted it believes in reducing fossil fuel consumption, and developing alternative energy sources, (but) “at the present moment oil and gas remain integral components of the global economy, essential to the daily lives of billions of people in both developed and emerging economies. [G]iven how integral oil and gas are to the global economy, the trustees do not believe that a credible case can be made for divesting from the fossil fuel industry until there are competitive and readily available alternatives.”

 * .... HOME PRICES: Am I the only one who suspects we may be experiencing a mini bubble in the housing market, or does hope spring eternal when you are selling a home? Look around in virtually any neighborhood and you will find a lot of inventory on the market, and many of these homes seem aggressively overpriced. Yes, mortgage rates are still attractive but when prices of $200 per square foot become the new average in this town, if you have to wonder how long this will last.

 * ... SPOTTED ON TWITTER: "Statistics show the number one cause of failed relationships is opening your mouth and letting words come out."

 * ... SPOTTED ON FACEBOOK: "The best part about being an adult is never having to do math ever again."

 * ... BAD FORM: I received this note from Paul Forster: "I applaud your on-going attempts to highlight bad driving behavior, so I thought I might help. Driving west on Olive, approaching Jewetta today, around 2 p.m. I noticed a black Subaru,  weaving in the right-hand lane, with a dog's head out of the driver's side window, on his lap! If that was not scary enough, when I passed him, he was talking on his mobile 'phone, stuck to his ear... need I say more?" That about covers it, Paul.

 * ... ROTARY: I neglected to mention that the volunteers I spotted cleaning up the rest stop next to Manor Street were members of the Bakersfield Breakfast Rotary Club. Thanks to Craig Holland for reminding me.

Armanda Bosley, longtime owner of Lou Ella's, dies; UC Santa Barbara alumni looking for reunion

 * ... BRAIN DRAIN: Reader Elaine McNearney wrote to tell me about all the alumni from University of California at Santa Barbara who call Bakersfield home. Apparently there are so many local kids applying to UCSB that Bakersfield is one of the few communities with a full-time UCSB staff person, working primarily at South High but also at Bakersfield High. McNearney said Catalina Mendiola works to help kids through the maze of paperwork required to be admitted to the UC and tries to identify students who qualify for the Research Mentoring Program targeting students from different disciplines. In addition, she said "a group of UCSB alumni are trying to locate other Kern County alumni and plan some social activities. So if this little ditty makes it to print please plug our brand new FaceBook page ...UCSB Alumni of Kern County." Any other Santa Barbara alums out there?

 * ... RIP ARMANDA BOSLEY: If you have lived in Bakersfield any length of time, you will remember the old Baker Street location of Lou Ella's Children's Boutique, which catered to generations of local families. One of the long-time former co-owners was Armanda Bosley, who died of a heart attack last week. She was 95. Reader Greg Cowan wrote to tell me of her passing, calling his aunt "a Bakersfield  institution" who worked alongside her daughter, Brenda, to serve thousands of local families. Bosley's parent's immigrated from France, and her father opened what would become the original Pyrenee's Bakery. After school, a young Armanda would deliver fresh bread to customers on her bicycle. She and Brenda purchased Lou Ella's in the 1960s and it served our community well for over 40 years. (The store later changed hands and moved to the Southwest). If you have memories of Armanda or Lou Ella's on Baker Street, feel free to email me and I will share on this blog.  Keep this special family in your thoughts.

 * .. NO NAME BAND: It's always nice to see local folks getting together for a worthy cause. That's what happened over at B. Ryder's bar and restaurant on White Lane Thursday when the "No-Name Band" was scheduled to play for a crowd to support the Bakersfield Ronald McDonald House at Memorial Hospital. The leader of this Baby Boomer band is Dr. John Heidrick, who along with Dr. Raj Patel owns Preferred Family Physicians off Truxtun Extension. You will no doubt recognize some of the "No Name Band" members: Jill Harlander on vocals, Jerry Stewart on guitar and vocals, Tim Montgomery on drums, harmonica flute and guitar, Leslie King on bass, John Brock on drums, Mike Hall on lead guitar, Michael Bell on rhythm guitar and Dr. Heidrick on guitar.

 * ... VALLEY PUBLIC TV: Learned the other day that Esther Brandon, a former local First Five Kern Commissioner, has been appointed to the Board of Directors of Valley Public Television. This is yet another indication of how KVPT is reaching out to the south Valley, and Kern County in particular, to gain support through partnerships and collaborative efforts. Brandon is active in Temple Beth El off Panorama Drive, has two boys (one at the University of Colorado and the other a senior at Garces Memorial High School, not to mention a sweet yellow lab named Blue) and is married to Rogers Brandon, president of the American General Media radio group.

 ... * BAKERSFIELDISMS: You know you're from Bakersfield when .... "You no longer associate bridges or rivers with water" and "You swear that just last week there was an orchard where there is now a whole new housing development."

The coming real estate train wreck, David Gordon hits the radio and more on Bakersfield nicknames....

* ... COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE: I read a disturbing piece the other day about just how much worse things can get not only with residential sales but also with commercial real estate. One expert, Andy Miller, argues the worst is yet to come, particularly in the commercial sector. (read the entire post here). On the residential side, the number of foreclosures remains staggering particularly in an area like the Central Valley that has been so hard hit. No one predicted we would be out of the woods this year, but Miller paints a frightening picture. An excerpt:

 "The public doesn't have any idea of the scale of the guarantees the government is taking on through Fannie, Freddie, and FHA. It's huge. If people understood what the federal government has done and subjected the taxpayers to, there would be a public outrage. But you can't get people to focus on it, and it's very esoteric, it's very hard to understand. But it's not something the bond market won't notice. The government can't keep doing what it has been doing to support mortgage lending without pushing interest rates way up.
 "Refinancings of single-family homes are very interest-rate sensitive. Consumers have their backs against the wall. They have too much debt. Refinancing their maturing mortgages or their adjustable-rate mortgages is very problematic if rates go up, but that's exactly where they're headed. So anyone who's comforted by current statistics on single-family homes should look beyond the data and into the dynamics of the market. What they'll find is very alarming." 

 So hang on, we've got more rough road ahead.

* ... ST. FRANCIS SCHOOL: Cynthia Meek, principal at St. Francis Parish elementary school, emailed to remind me that the school's annual Crabfest fund raiser this past weekend was organized by the Parent Teacher Organization and not the Junior League. I had mentioned the Junior League in an earlier posting on the event, noting that many of those working Crabfest were Junior Leaguers, but didn't mean to imply the League was a sponsor.  "I only mention this because I do not want to confuse our parishioners who support our school and the community businesses that support our school.... The Crabfest is the main fund raiser of the PTO and all profits go directly to the school to help underwrite the cost of education,"she said.

 * ... BAKO OR BUCKERSFIELD? Reader Don Palla weighed in on Bakersfield nicknames, asking if I had "totally forgotten about Buckersfield after Bako legend Buck Owens? That gets my vote!" And another reader, Molly Sabat,  noted that when "my husband and I were preparing to move here from Ventura in 1996, my little brother Kevin McKean started throwing out Baker-tucky. I think I like it." Thanks for the feedback.

 * ... MORE BAKO TALK: Lee Webb, professor emeritus of math at Cal State Bakersfield, sent me a thoughtful note on the debate over nicknames. In his words: "I'm enjoying the discussion about Bakersfield's name and the possible variations used.  I believe that you have mentioned the use of Stockdale, CA., but if not, I remember when I arrived in town in 1971 to start my teaching career at CSUB, I wondered what would happen if I put Stockdale, CA. 93309 instead of Bakersfield, CA. 93309 on a letter?  Stockdale sounded so much better.  After all, I believe if you addressed a letter to Oildale, CA. 93308 that is would arrive in a timely manner.

 "Also, when my son and I were in Mammoth skiing in December, I noticed one of the lift operators had a name tag with her name and 'Rosedale, CA.' under it.  I did not remember any Rosedale, CA, so I asked her if she lived in Bakersfield.  She said yes, but she didn't like to advertise that she lived in there, so she had them put Rosedale, CA on her name tag.  She thought that was better as she had recently graduated from Liberty High School and lived in the 93312 area code.  Would a letter addressed Rosedale, CA 93312 get to her?  Having been raised in Santa Barbara, which is considered a garden spot of CA, I even tried to disassociate myself with Bakersfield by thinking about Stockdale, CA when I first arrived.  It seems as though some young people are still trying to do so.  Now I appreciate Bakersfield more, particularly the very nice, friendly people.  I would prefer more Santa Barbara type weather, but I tolerate the heat and fog." 

 * ... MUSEUM ON THE RADIO:  David Gordon is the assistant director of The Bakersfield Museum of Art, a local artist himself and one of the wittiest people I know. So it was nothing short of a stroke of genius that the Museum decided to partner with 101.5 KGFM radio to put Gordon on the radio every Wednesday, teamed with the sibling morning hosts Rachel and Dustin Legan (photo below) to talk about gossip, local entertainment and local happenings. It's called "The Scene" and it will debut today (Wednesday) at 7:40 a.m. and will air every Wednesday at the same time. I'm tuning in, and suggest you do the same.

Bako bits: more concerns about housing and Bakersfield prepares to look for a new police chief

 Some short takes around down on this first day of the Kern County Fair...

 * ... AS IF BUSINESS ISN'T BAD ENOUGH: Turns out the decision to close the courts once a month to save money has had the unintended consequence of hurting the businesses of downtown eateries. If you remember the local courts are now furloughed every third Wednesday. If you work downtown, as I do, you know how strongly the court system fuels downtown commerce. Restaurants like Uricchios and the Sequoia Sandwich Co. thrive off the court clerks, jurors and bailiffs who dine there for lunch, and denying them that commerce once a month can be devastating. Jeff Simpson, one of Sequoia's owners, says the furlough has cost him 25 percent of his business on that one day. Just one more example of tough times all around.


 * ... POLICE CHIEF RECTOR ON HIS WAY OUT: It's well known that Police Chief Bill Rector has been thinking about retiring, and now I hear he's made the decision to leave in early January and is likely to announce it in November. It's no coincidence that Rector will turn 50 in January, thus making him eligible for the lucrative city pension that has come under such scrutiny lately. Insiders say the leading candidates to replace Rector are Assistant Police Chief Lyle Martin (pictured right) and Capt. Greg Williamson. (that's him on the left) My money is on Martin, who would become the city's second African-American chief following the popular Eric Matlock who preceded Rector.

 * ... MORE HOUSING CONCERNS: The complexity and depth of this Great Recession cannot be understated, and you do so at your own risk. Real estate, for example, has certainly shown some signs of life, but most of the sales are on the low end of the market reflecting the continuing purge of excess inventory and foreclosures. While it's certainly appropriate to celebrate any good news, it's also wise to be cautious. Which is why a story in today's Wall Street Journal was so disturbing. It noted the growing number of "delayed foreclosures" caused by "legal snarls, bureaucracy and well meaning efforts to keep families in their homes" which are "slowing the flow of properties headed toward foreclosure." It continued:

 "While that buys time for families to work out their problems, some analysts believe the delays are prolonging the mortgage crisis and creating a growing 'shadow' inventory of pent-up supply that will eventually hit the market. The size of this shadow inventory is a source of concern and debate among real estate agents and analysts who worry that when the supply is unleashed, it could interrupt the budding housing recovery and ignite a new wave of stress in the housing market."

 One Irvine real estate  consultant predicted a "flood (of bank owned homes) listed for sale at some point." Stay tuned. We're not out of the woods yet.

 * ... MINTER FIELD HANGAR DEDICATION: Don't forget the big to-do out at Minter Field in Shafter this weekend. They'll be dedicating an historic hangar and there will be a B-17 flyover to highlight the weekend. It promises to be a perfect weekend weatherwise. This is a splendid event for youngsters to give them a sense of history, and for history buffs of all ages. The show runs Friday and Saturday and admission is free. The B-17 will be flying in the morning and around noon so don't arrive too later. And you gotta love their poster promoting the event.

Crabtree: local real estate market has hit the bottom, but don't break out the champagne yet

Here's some long-awaited good news: it looks like we've finally reached the bottom of the real estate meltdown. At least that's according to Gary Crabtree, one of the most well respected authorities on our local market. Gary sent me a copy of "The Crabtree Report," a detailed, no-holds-barred look at our local market. It's always a sobering read, but there is a glimmer of hope. Said Gary:

"Overall, it can be opined that the Bakersfield market has reached a bottom and is experiencing a stabilization of prices with one quarter of slightly increasing prices brought about by a continuing decrease in supply and reasonable demand."

That said, he warned that the current market conditions "should be met with a healthy amount of caution" because we are nearing the end of the prime marketing season, meaning sales will naturally begin to decline as we move to the seasonal "off peak" period."
Gary's report is rich in detail and to my knowledge, it's without peer in terms of of research and analysis. Some highlights include:

* ... EXISTING HOME SALES: Sales of existing homes in July came to 657, slightly down from June but 11.7 percent better than last year.
* ... EXISTING MEAN SALE PRICE: The mean sale price was $154,211, again slightly higher than June but 27 percent lower than last year.
* ... CURRENT LISTINGS: There were 1,340 listings in July, fully 59 percent less than last year when there were 3,293 on the market.
* ... DAYS ON MARKET: The average days on the market came in at 18 compared to 35 last year.
* ... MEAN PRICE PER SQ. FOOT: In July it was $90.87 compared to $122.94 last year.

That gives you an idea of the state of things. Gary warned that unemployment continues to be a factor, hovering around 10.1 percent in Bakersfield, and we are still experiencing problems with inexperienced appraisers working in our market. Still, all in all, we take good news when it comes. Stabilization is a good word these days.

Bako bits: With fingers crossed, is the real estate market finally turning? Some believe it is ...

* ... IS THE RECOVERY IN SIGHT? So here's some good news: it appears there is finally - belatedly - some firm signs that the local residential real estate market is beginning to turn. Really. First there was the release of Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Index yesterday that showed home prices in most major cities gaining for the first time in three years. (Of course some markets, like Las Vegas and Phoenix in particular remain depressed.) That was good enough news to make the front page today of The Wall Street Journal, which has pointed out repeatedly that there can be no recovery without residential real estate leading the way. So I picked up the phone and called old friend Ray Karpe, president of Karpe Real Estate Center, to take his pulse. It was the first time I had talked to Ray in months that he seemed genuinely upbeat. In his words:

"Houses are going quickly and we're looking at inventory down to a couple months supply," he said. "And it's not just foreclosures but good homes, more expensive homes that are moving too. Look, we're not out of the foreclosure mess; we're going to have more of those. But the good news is you can sell houses now. The interest rates are good and prices have even ticked up a bit." Meanwhile, I heard on CNBC that tomorrow new statistics will be released by RealtyTrac, and that should help confirm if things are getting better. But they warned: there are indications that rising unemployment is leading to a new round of foreclosures that are unrelated to the earlier bad loan foreclosures. So, we'll have to wait and see.

Ray did go on to say that, contrary to single-family residential, everything from "apartments to heavy industrial" property is "in the tank. It's just awful." He said the same is true for folks in the development business or anyone who is holding debt on land. He continued:

"It's the single family stuff that is moving. Look, if you're going to buy a house, do it now. Don't wait. We've hit the bottom and you're going to see prices start rising again."



* ... BC RECYCLING PROGRAM: Got a note from Amber Chiang, marketing csar over at Bakersfield College, about a free e-waste recycling collection set for Aug. 15. You'll be able to take your old computer monitors, laptops, fax machines, toner cartridges, old cell phones and even car batteries and drop them off at the college's southeast stadium parking lot at the corner of Mt. Vernon and University. It will run from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m..

One more thing to worry about: Why low appraisals may be scuttling the housing recovery

It was a few weeks ago that Watson-Touchstone Realtor Mary Christenson tipped me off to the latest hiccup standing in the way of a housing recovery: new federal regulations that are leading to flawed appraisals and derailing sales. Here's the deal: a buyer and seller come to terms to sell a home for say $400,000, yet the appraisal comes in consistently low, say $350,000. And the home had multiple bids and the comps hold up in the area. So what's wrong here? Mary and others point to rules that went into effect May 1 requiring lenders that sell loans to Fannie Maie or Freddic Mac to set up a firewall between appraisers and loan officers. All this to prevent "improper influence" between the appraiser and the Realtors. (Check out a Seattle Times story for a more complete explanation.
Now I see CNBC has picked up the story and I include a brief report from their website here. This is a serious issue, folks, and another case where over-regulation has simply gummed up the works. We have a market that is struggling to find its sea legs and regulation that is killing legitimate deals. Enough already.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Gary Crabtree, one of the foremost experts on the issue locally, said the issue is complicated by the fact that local appraisers are being "low balled" by outsiders who know little of the market. I'm excerpting parts of an email Gary shared with me. Feel free to contact him for a fuller explanation. Said Gary:

"The reason the appraisals are holding up the closings is that the AMC's now control the purse strings of the fee. Once the appraiser would receive $375 to $400 for his services, today they receive as little as $175 to $285 from these AMC's. The experienced and ethical appraisers can not afford to produce a creditable report for that kind of money. So who is doing the appraisals? The lesser experienced, geographically incompetent and sloppy appraisers who are forced to produce a 'shoddy' product because they don't have the time to do a "creditable" report. To exacerbate things, now that they have independence from pressure from lenders, they can 'low ball' to their hearts content and not have to worry about anything. I have been swamped with calls from agents, buyers, sellers wanting to know why their appraisals are low? Well, see above for the answer.

"So who is hurt by HVCC (Home Valuation Code of Conduct)? Well lets see, first the experienced and geographically competent appraisers like Rich and me; the buyers who have been 'low balled' and lose the deal or has to come up with additional cash down; the sellers who are sometimes forced to lower their price to make the deal; the mortgage broker who can't close a deal because they are held captive by the AMC's on appraisal delivery and fees; the taxpayers who get to pay for the 'write downs' of the banks, Freddie, Fannie all of whom have been subsidized by the TARP money... How is the market to recover with this type of forces in play? "

B-town makes Top 10 list of worst real estate markets

Not that anybody suspected otherwise, but once again Bakersfield shows up on a newly released list of the nation's worst real estate markets. Eight of those ten are in California and Bakersfield is ranked No. 9. It's another indication that we've got a ways to go to dig out of this mess, and any recovery will be half hearted with real estate leading the way. The list is from the NBC affiliate in the Bay Area and was compiled by the S&P Case-Shiller national home price index. 2009 looks like another tough year.

Top Ten Worst Markets
1) Los Angeles: Projected to be down 24.9 percent in 2009
2) Stockton: Projected 2009: down 24.7 percent
3) Riverside: Projected 2009: down 23.3 percent
4) Miami-Miami Beach: Projected 2009: down 22.8 percent
5) Sacramento: Projected 2009: 22.2 percent
6) Santa Ana-Anaheim: Projected 2009: down 22 percent
7) Fresno: Projected 2009: down 21.6 percent
8) San Diego: Projected 2009: 21.1 percent
9) Bakersfield: Projected 2009: down 20.9 percent
10) Washington, D.C.: Projected 2009: down 19.9 percent